The European Commission is preparing revisions to the EU ETS, with major debates focused on ETS revenues, competitiveness, and shipping decarbonization. Shipping industry groups, led by ECSA (European Community Shipowners’ Association), want ETS revenues reinvested in green fuels and support aligning EU regulations with future IMO measures. They also seek permanent exemptions for ice-class ships and certain island services. Environmental group Transport & Environment, however, argues for stricter rules, including extending ETS coverage to smaller ships and limiting exemptions. The revision highlights the EU’s challenge of balancing climate goals with industry competitiveness.

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MSC wants voyages with EU transshipment calls exempted from ETS

Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) is reportedly lobbying the EU to exempt shipping voyages that include transshipment calls at EU ports from the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS). MSC argues that the current rules increase costs and weaken the competitiveness of EU transshipment hubs compared with nearby non-EU ports. Under the current ETS framework, containerships operating on routes such as Asia–US that make a transshipment stop in an EU port must pay carbon costs for 50% of emissions on the voyage to and from the EU. However, ships using certain non-EU ports may avoid much of this cost. Italy and Malta are said to support the proposal during the ongoing ETS revision. Critics argue that such exemptions would undermine the ETS’s environmental objective by reducing the amount of emissions covered and decreasing government revenue. Maritime analyst Lars Jensen questioned the environmental rationale, saying the proposal appears to offer mainly a financial benefit rather than reducing emissions. The European Commission is expected to present proposals for revising the ETS, which will then be debated by EU institutions for several years.

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Brussels proposes extending ETS to smaller ships, reserves billions for green shipping

The European Commission has proposed expanding the EU ETS to ships of 400 GT and above from 2030. It also plans to reserve 110 million ETS allowances (worth about €9 billion) to help shipping companies bridge the cost gap between conventional and green fuels.

The proposal would:

–         Simplify emissions reporting requirements.

–         Extend ETS exemptions for ice-class ships, island services, and outermost regions until 2035.

–         Expand ETS coverage to certain nearby non-EU ports to prevent shipping companies from avoiding ETS costs through transshipment calls.

Regarding future IMO global carbon measures, the Commission proposes a mechanism to avoid double charging, but it does not commit to abolishing the EU ETS if a global system is introduced.

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Containership orders hit record high despite looming overcapacity fears

The global containership orderbook has reached a record 13.7 million TEU, equivalent to more than 40% of the existing fleet. Chinese shipyards dominate the market, building about 80% of all vessels on order. A major driver is MSC’s reported order for up to 20 LNG dual-fuel mega containerships, reflecting continued strong demand for newbuildings amid tight vessel availability through 2027. However, analysts warn of significant overcapacity risks. Around 1,000 new container ships (8.5 million TEU) are scheduled for delivery in 2027–2028, far above historical levels. Unless cargo demand grows strongly or more ships are scrapped, excess capacity could put pressure on freight rates, charter markets, and vessel values.

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Global container shipping is undergoing a structural shift away from traditional mega-hubs such as Singapore, Port Klang, Tanjung Pelepas, Shanghai, and Ningbo. According to SeaIntelligence’s analysis of UNCTAD’s Port Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (PLSCI), what began as temporary rerouting due to disruptions in the Red Sea and Middle East has now become a long-term network strategy. Shipping lines are increasingly distributing cargo through secondary regional ports rather than concentrating it at a few major transshipment hubs. Ports such as Djibouti, Khor Fakkan, Jeddah, Ennore, Pipavav, Visakhapatnam, and Haiphong have seen strong growth in connectivity as carriers seek more flexible and resilient supply chains. The trend is also being reinforced by the “China+1” manufacturing strategy, which is shifting production and logistics flows across Asia. While some traditional hubs are losing connectivity, selected regional gateways that support cross-border supply chains are gaining importance. SeaIntelligence concludes that this is not a temporary response to crises but a permanent recalibration of global shipping networks, with carriers favoring a more decentralized and diversified routing structure.

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Key container lines have pulled most ships from Middle East Gulf

Major global container shipping lines have largely withdrawn their vessels from the Middle East Gulf (MEG) after the partial reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The number of containerships in the region has fallen significantly, from 138 vessels (470,000 TEU) during the height of the crisis to 80 vessels (170,000 TEU), including 24 operated by major global carriers. Rather than suspending services, shipping companies have restructured their networks by using intra-MEG feeder services, road transport, and regional hub ports to keep cargo moving. Despite ongoing security risks, carriers continue to serve the Middle East Gulf through revised logistics networks, highlighting the region’s strategic importance for global trade.

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Alternative fuel vessel orders fall as large containership demand cools

Orders for alternative-fuel vessels fell 12% in the first half of 2026, from 155 to 137 ships, mainly due to weaker demand for large dual-fuel containerships. LNG remained the preferred alternative fuel, accounting for 73 new orders. Dual-fuel LPG carriers saw strong growth, with orders rising from 15 to 55 vessels. Deliveries remained robust, including 61 LNG-fuelled and 38 methanol-fuelled ships entering service. Exmar received the world’s first ocean-going dual-fuel ammonia vessel, marking progress toward commercial ammonia-powered shipping. Although alternative-fuel orders have declined, the trend reflects a shift toward smaller feeder and regional vessels rather than a reduced commitment to decarbonization. Large containership orders have slowed, and only about 25% of containerships ordered in 2026 are dual-fuel, compared with 60% in the first half of 2025.

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The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will free about 50 containerships (around 300,000 TEU, 0.9% of global capacity), so the immediate impact on freight rates will be limited. Shipping lines are prioritizing the retrieval of stranded vessels over the rapid restoration of services in the Middle East Gulf (MEG), while war risk premiums remain high. A portion of the stranded fleet (about 25%) is sanctioned/Iranian-owned and unlikely to re-enter the main market. The key factor for freight rates is not the Strait of Hormuz, but whether carriers return to Red Sea routes. A rapid return to the Red Sea is unlikely in the near term, keeping supply tight and freight rates relatively firm, though a full return could quickly push rates down.

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Iran and US to begin immediate demilitarisation of Hormuz after MOU signed

The US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) to begin immediate demilitarisation of the Strait of Hormuz. Both sides agreed to cease military actions and negotiate a final agreement within 60 days. The US will lift its naval blockade within 30 days and consider removing sanctions, unfreezing Iranian assets, and allowing oil exports. Iran will ensure safe passage for commercial vessels free of charge for 60 days, while beginning demining and the removal of military obstacles within 30 days. Talks (including with Oman and the Gulf states) will address the future governance of the strait, including possible tolls, though the legality under international law (UNCLOS) remains unclear. While freedom of navigation is improving, uncertainty remains about long-term arrangements, especially fees and enforcement.

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Tentative Strait of Hormuz transits continue despite Iranian closure and toll threats

Commercial shipping has continued through the Strait of Hormuz despite Iran’s claim that it closed the waterway and threatened action against non-compliant vessels. Some ships delayed or altered their routes, but many continued to use Iranian-approved and US-protected corridors. Iran introduced a new insurance requirement and may impose future tolls, while the US warned it could also charge fees if no agreement is reached. The situation has increased uncertainty, leading to higher war-risk premiums, operational delays, and more cautious routing decisions. The strait remains a high-risk area as US-Iran ceasefire talks proceed, with geopolitical tensions directly affecting maritime operations.

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US-Iran talks show progress, but shipping fears another ‘Groundhog Day’

US–Iran talks are showing signs of progress, boosting market optimism and driving up Chinese shipping stocks. However, shipping industry participants remain cautious, as past agreements have repeatedly failed, creating a “Groundhog Day” cycle of opening and closing the Strait of Hormuz. Despite a preliminary deal to reopen the strait, significant uncertainties remain, including war risk premiums, sanctions relief, and safety conditions. Industry experts warn that even in a best-case scenario, full recovery of shipping networks will take months, with stable operations unlikely until mid-September 2026. Overall, while a deal can be reached quickly, rebuilding trust and restoring normal shipping operations will take much longer.

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Cosco Shipping Ports (CSP) has received approval for a 50-year concession to develop and operate a multipurpose terminal at Spain’s Port of Tarragona—its first new investment in a European port in over three years. The $168m project will be run by a Chinese-led joint venture and is expected to start operations later this year, reaching a capacity of 680,000 TEU by 2028. The terminal will handle containers, vehicles, ro-ro traffic, and rail cargo, serving as a logistics hub linking Europe with Asia and Latin America. The project reflects China’s continued interest in expanding its presence in European ports despite growing political scrutiny and tighter EU regulations over foreign (especially Chinese) involvement in critical infrastructure.

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Alternative fuel boxship newbuild orders stall as focus shifts to feeder fleet replacement

Orders for dual‑fuel containerships have dropped sharply in 2026, with only 25% of new orders featuring dual‑fuel systems, down from 60% in early 2025. However, this decline reflects a shift in fleet strategy—not a retreat from decarbonization. Shipping companies are now focusing more on smaller feeder and regional vessels, where the high cost of dual‑fuel technology is harder to justify. Larger ships still adopt alternative fuels, but such projects are less common. Methanol‑fueled ship orders have fallen to zero in 2026, while LNG remains dominant due to its established infrastructure. Regulatory uncertainty and limited availability of green methanol are also delaying investment decisions. At the same time, companies continue retrofitting existing ships for alternative fuels, though future commitments may weaken due to high costs.

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Middle East crisis drags on global box volumes

The Middle East Gulf crisis remains the biggest negative factor, reducing global April container volumes by about 660,000 TEU (≈4%) and lowering 2026 YTD growth to 5.1% from over 6%. Despite this, the global market is resilient: carriers are rerouting cargo via Red Sea hubs and adapting networks quickly. North America imports rebounded (+6.2% year-on-year in April), driven by a strong recovery in transpacific trade, especially increased Chinese exports to the US. Asia–Europe trade remains strong, with year-to-date growth of 14.3% and continued demand momentum. Emerging routes (Asia–Africa, Asia–Latin America) are also growing rapidly. Freight rates are rising, especially on Middle East-related trades, reflecting disruption and capacity shifts.

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Outlook for the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF) remains uncertain following MEPC84, with experts divided on its prospects. While the NZF has not been dismissed, its adoption “as is” appears unlikely due to continued disagreement, particularly over carbon pricing. The US strongly opposes economic measures that leave key elements, such as the Net-Zero Fund, effectively stalled. Despite this, a majority of countries (about 59) support using the NZF as a basis for further negotiations. Alternative proposals from Japan and a Liberia-led group exist but have limited backing. Any significant revisions would delay both adoption and entry into force. As a result, shipowners and operators face ongoing uncertainty regarding future global regulations and long-term investment decisions.

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What to expect from the UK ETS

The UK Emissions Trading Scheme (UK ETS) will begin including shipping from July 1, but its scope is narrower than the EU ETS, as it currently excludes international voyages. While the financial impact may be limited, companies still face significant administrative burdens, particularly for monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV), even for relatively small in-port emissions. Shipping is expected to have little influence on carbon prices due to its small share of total emissions. Some uncertainties remain, including emission factors, while the scheme’s future expansion to international shipping may depend on global climate negotiations at the IMO.

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First wave of ammonia dual-fuel cargoships set for delivery across multiple sectors

The first wave of large commercial vessels capable of operating on ammonia fuel is approaching delivery, marking a key milestone in maritime decarbonization. So far, 47 ammonia-fueled newbuildings and several retrofit projects have been ordered globally. Belgian shipowner CMB.Tech is leading adoption, with multiple vessels under construction across segments such as bulk carriers, container ships, gas carriers, and tankers. Notable projects include the Yara Eyde, which will launch Europe’s first ammonia-powered international container route. Other companies are also advancing ammonia adoption, including retrofits such as Norway’s Viking Energy, as well as newbuild vehicle carriers and tankers scheduled for delivery from 2027 onward. While order activity has slowed recently, ammonia is emerging as a promising zero-carbon fuel, with further expansion expected.

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Opposition to the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF) succeeded in keeping alternative proposals under discussion by prolonging procedural debates. Countries such as Saudi Arabia, the US, and Liberia pushed for continued consideration of a weaker, fossil fuel-based alternative, while progressive states preferred focusing solely on advancing the NZF. As a result, no clear agreement was reached at MEPC84, and further intersessional meetings were scheduled, leaving the NZF’s adoption uncertain and giving opponents more opportunities to delay or weaken it.

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Maersk warns excess capacity and geopolitical tensions continue to pressure box market

Maersk reported weaker Q1 2026 financial results as falling freight rates offset strong volume growth. Container volumes rose 9.3%, but average freight rates dropped 14%, leading to a 2.6% decline in revenue to $13 billion and a 33% fall in EBITDA to $1.8 billion. While demand remained solid across most regions, the market faced ongoing pressure from excess shipping capacity and geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East. Rising fuel costs and disruptions increased uncertainty, though cost controls and operational adjustments helped mitigate the impact. Maersk maintained its full-year outlook but warned that risks remain skewed to the downside due to high energy prices and geopolitical instability.

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European shipping risks a decline without investment in clean fuels

European shipping is growing in absolute terms, but its global share is declining as Asian fleets expand more rapidly. While European shipowners lead in ordering environmentally friendly vessels (44% of global orders), Europe lags far behind Asia in clean fuel production, accounting for only 10% compared to Asia’s 74%. The European Community Shipowners’ Associations (ECSA) warns that without stronger investment in clean fuel production—especially through reinvesting the €9bn annual ETS contributions—Europe risks losing competitiveness and energy security. Despite ambitious climate goals, insufficient fuel availability and investment could undermine the energy transition and Europe’s position in global shipping.

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Vehicle shipping demand holds firm despite rising costs and geopolitics, says Wallenius Wilhelmsen

Global vehicle shipping demand remains strong, supported by high utilization and robust exports from Asia—especially China—which offset declining volumes from Europe and the US. This growing East–West trade imbalance continues to sustain demand for vehicle carriers. However, rising geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, along with higher fuel costs and a tighter charter market, are increasing pressure on the sector. Wallenius Wilhelmsen expects higher bunker costs to impact short-term earnings, though some of the impact may be offset by surcharges. Despite limited direct exposure to the Middle East, the company lowered its 2026 outlook due to rising costs. While global auto exports remain solid, higher energy prices and economic uncertainty could weaken future demand.

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Indonesia’s finance minister briefly suggested charging tolls on ships transiting the Strait of Malacca, inspired by Iran’s actions in the Strait of Hormuz, but quickly retracted the idea as impractical. The comments came amid rising global concern over maritime security following Iran’s seizure of vessels in Hormuz. Malaysia and Singapore firmly rejected any toll proposal, stressing that free transit through the Malacca Strait is guaranteed under UNCLOS and is vital for trade-dependent economies. All three countries emphasized a cooperative framework to keep the strait open. Given that the Malacca Strait handles around a quarter of global trade and a third of seaborne oil, any disruption or closure would severely impact global trade and energy security.

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Shipping trade bodies stick by net zero ambition ahead of MEPC84

Major global shipping industry bodies reaffirmed their commitment to the IMO’s 2023 net‑zero greenhouse gas strategy ahead of MEPC84, while stopping short of explicitly endorsing the IMO’s proposed Net‑Zero Framework (NZF), which includes a global carbon pricing mechanism. They emphasized the need for regulatory certainty, warning that fragmented regional rules would undermine investments already made in alternative fuels and green technologies. Although the NZF faces strong political opposition, particularly from the US and oil‑exporting countries, the industry groups continue to back the IMO as the single global regulator. Deep divisions remain among shipowners and member states over carbon pricing, transition fuels such as LNG, and how any revenues should be used, casting uncertainty over whether the NZF will ultimately be adopted.

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Hormuz crisis drives up Panama Canal delays and auction prices

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has diverted large volumes of energy cargo to alternative routes, sharply increasing congestion at the Panama Canal. Crude oil, refined products, and LPG shipments from the US Gulf to Asia—normally limited—have surged, pushing daily canal traffic to near-peak levels. As more vessels arrive without reservations, waiting times in both directions have risen to around 5–6 days on average in April, with some ships waiting up to two weeks. Auction prices for priority transit slots have spiked to record or near‑record levels, including up to $1.7m for a panamax slot and $4m for a neopanamax slot. Canal congestion is also supporting VLGC freight rates, as more LPG cargoes are rerouted via the longer Cape of Good Hope.

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According to the report from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES), the duration of a potential shutdown in the Strait of Hormuz will be the deciding factor for the global energy landscape. A short disruption of LNG exports from the Middle East Gulf would be manageable for global markets, with limited price impact. However, a shutdown lasting six months to a year—such as a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz—would severely disrupt global LNG flows, drive gas prices sharply higher, and cause demand destruction in Europe, India, and China. Even if fighting ends, continued security risks could delay LNG shipping, and replacing lost Qatari and UAE supply may take until 2028, largely through US capacity expansions.

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Hormuz crisis could curb box shipping demand but no fallout yet

The Hormuz crisis has not yet had a significant impact on global container shipping, although potential risks remain. Container freight rates on major trades are fluctuating within normal ranges: transpacific spot rates have risen recently, while Asia–Europe rates have peaked and edged down. US container imports in March were broadly in line with last year and remain historically strong. Capacity levels have been stable, suggesting rate movements are driven more by seasonal demand recovery and market sentiment than by supply constraints. While higher fuel costs from the Middle East conflict could eventually weigh on demand and increase surcharges, any major fallout for container shipping has so far been limited and indirect.

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The IMO’s work on carbon-intensity rankings for marine fuels, while presented as a technical climate-policy exercise, is, in reality, a battle over future fuel market share. Small differences in assigned emission factors—especially for LNG—can lead to major financial consequences for shipowners, including compliance issues or multi-million-dollar penalties. As a result, countries with fuels to sell are pushing for classifications that favor their own exports. Overall, the debate shows that, IMO, climate regulation is not only about decarbonization but also about geopolitics, fuel competitiveness, and who wins or loses in the future maritime energy market.

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Shipping won’t fix its methane slip without regulation, says industry group

The European industry group, The Methane Abatement in Maritime Innovation Initiative (MAMII), argues that LNG shipping will not address methane slip without regulation and urges the EU to introduce regulatory credits that reward reductions. While new engine designs have significantly reduced methane slip, older and leakier engines still dominate the global fleet. MAMII is calling for support for abatement technologies such as oxidation catalysts and plasma reactors, warning that without incentives or penalties, action will be delayed or avoided. Although methane emissions will now fall under the EU ETS, MAMII cautions that European maritime technology firms could lose out to competitors in Asia and elsewhere unless the EU actively nurtures domestic solutions, despite LNG remaining a key marine fuel for many years.

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Automotive sector set for disruption as large vehicle carriers remain stranded in Gulf

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted automotive shipping, leaving 15 vehicle carriers stranded in the Gulf of the Middle East. Before the crisis, up to 25 car carriers per week served Gulf ports, mainly carrying vehicles from Asia. Because vehicle carriers operate on highly interconnected global routes, the loss of even a small number of ships has disrupted fixed liner schedules worldwide. The impact is especially serious for Asian automakers, with the Middle East being a key export market—particularly for China, which shipped about 1.4 million vehicles to the region in 2025. Japanese, Chinese, and South Korean operators are among the most exposed. While companies are diverting ships to alternative ports in India, Oman, and Saudi Arabia and using overland transport, these measures are raising costs and long-term risks across global automotive and parts supply chains.

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LNG a ‘blessing in disguise’ as shipping mulls alternatives amid bunker shortage

Geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, have led to shortages and higher prices of conventional marine fuels such as HSFO and VLSFO. As a result, shipowners are increasingly considering LNG as an alternative bunker fuel. LNG offers diversified sourcing options (including the US, Canada, and Australia) and may be cost-effective in the long term, especially when carbon tax exemptions are factored in. CMA CGM plans to expand its LNG dual-fuel fleet to 144 vessels by 2030. However, LNG adoption faces limitations, notably reduced supply following attacks affecting Qatar, a major LNG exporter, as well as environmental concerns related to methane slip. Consequently, industry leaders emphasize the importance of a diverse mix of alternative fuels, such as ethanol and ammonia, to enhance energy security and resilience against geopolitical disruptions.

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After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that IEEPA tariffs were illegal, CBP is now required to refund $166 billion to importers, but currently lacks the systems and manpower to comply. The agency is working to deploy new electronic refund capabilities within 45 days, while the court warns that delays could result in massive interest costs by year‑end. Meanwhile, the Trump administration’s fallback measure—a global 10% tariff under Section 122 (with a possible increase to 15%)—is being challenged by 24 U.S. states as an improper use of the statute. Additionally, an appeal regarding adjustments to Section 301 tariffs is seeking a Supreme Court review. Overall, following the invalidation of IEEPA tariffs, multiple tariff mechanisms are now tied up in litigation, creating significant uncertainty in U.S. trade policy. Industry experts expect tariffs to remain a persistent policy tool regardless of future administrations.

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IMO net zero battle lines reform ahead of MEPC84

Ahead of MEPC84, petrostates oppose the current Net-Zero Framework (NZF) and seek to dilute carbon‑pricing measures, while Pacific Islands demand adopting the NZF unchanged or with stronger ambition. Brazil argues that the NZF is the only credible and widely supported pathway to meet the IMO’s climate goals, noting that it is not a global tax, as fuel‑switching can also ensure compliance. The U.S. is expected to oppose the NZF even more strongly this round. Brazil proposes addressing adoption at MEPC85 and, if consensus remains out of reach, postponing any changes.

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Up to 140 containerships at risk in Gulf as indiscriminate attacks spread

Escalating conflict in the Middle East Gulf has led to indiscriminate attacks on shipping, leaving up to 140 containerships effectively stranded in the region. Three containerships have been hit in recent days, and the lack of safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz has brought container traffic to a standstill. Major carriers such as MSC, CMA CGM, Maersk, and Hapag-Lloyd, as well as tonnage providers including Seaspan, Danaos, and Global Ship Lease, are heavily exposed. Carriers have suspended bookings to Gulf ports, rerouted cargo to contingency hubs, and caused congestion across the Arabian Sea, Indian subcontinent, and Southeast Asia. The crisis has rapidly become one of the most severe disruptions to global container shipping in recent years, creating significant operational, financial, and safety challenges for both operators and vessel owners.

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